Employment points to an L shaped recovery for most

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls for January came in with a gain of 49,000. Revisions to earlier months showed a decline for both November and December by a total of 159 thousand. Government payrolls rose 43 thousand vs. private payrolls up 6 thousand. Education workers grew. The unemployment rate (U3), however, fell to 6.3%, well below … Continue reading Employment points to an L shaped recovery for most

There should be no concern about inflation

Longterm inflation expectations should not be sensitive to a sudden move in either oil prices or equity prices as timely monetary policy adjustments from policymakers are supposed to offset those shocks. The main short-term leading indicator of inflation is labor unit costs, which is used as an indicator of inflationary pressure on producers. Interestingly, after … Continue reading There should be no concern about inflation