On Friday, Treasuries turned their back on the global inflation narrative with yields falling below 1.5% from a high on March 19 of 1.7%. Additionally, 10-year German bund yields are at -0.25% after hitting -0.11% in mid-May10-year UK gilts hit 0.74% after topping in mid-May at 0.89%10-year Japanese Government Bonds are now at 0.08% after … Continue reading Inflationary concerns, gone? →

Jun 11, 2021: New York Fed Staff Nowcast The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.2% for 2021:Q2 and 5.3% for 2021:Q3.News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q2 by 0.2 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q3 by 0.1 percentage point.Negative surprises from international trade data accounted for most … Continue reading NY Fed Nowcast →

Wave = 5 Day Trimmed Mean (70%) - 35 Day Trimmed Mean (70%) Trend = Current price - 200 Day Trimmed Mean (70%) Wave-Trend = Wave + Trend

Euro Zone The global recovery from the pandemic has sparked a surge in inflation, but it's a welcome respite for the European Union, which has spent the past decade flirting dangerously with deflation. Given that the yearly inflation rate was negative at the start of this year, a brief stint above target is the least … Continue reading While there may be inflation concerns here, in Europe and Japan, deflation is front and center →

there's a lot of talk about price inflation because of base effects from a year ago. Other indicators, however, are being cited by some as warning signs of potentially rising price inflation. For example, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages are putting existing labor prices under upward pressure. So over the next few months, the … Continue reading Fundamental and technical indicators point squarely to transitory inflation →

Dr. Jack Vogel recently shared a study he conducted that looked at: Is it better to combine value and momentum to create a portfolio? ORConcentrate on the value and momentum factors independently before combining the factor portfolio? To complete his study he examined mid and large-cap caps in US and International Developed markets. The Findings … Continue reading A closer look at utilizing Value and Momentum →

The cost of housing has risen dramatically in many sections of the country. In March, the index of property prices in 20 major cities rose 13.3 percent year over year. That figure appears to be a positive indicator for the home market. Then why is there danger brewing? So, here's a chart that could help. … Continue reading The fall in real estate sales may portend trouble ahead for stocks →

The authors of the May 2019 study "The Best of Strategies for the Worst of Times: Can Portfolios be Crisis Proofed?" Campbell Harvey, Edward Hoyle, Sandy Rattray, Matthew Sargaison, Dan Taylor, and Otto Van Hemert looked into the performance of a range of defensive strategies. Between 1985 and 2018, they looked at both active and … Continue reading Building a crash proof strategy →

On an Intermediate-Term Wave-Trend basis, value stocks continue to extend their streak against growth. Wave = 5 Day Trimmed Mean (70%) - 35 Day Trimmed Mean (70%) Trend = Current price - 200 Day Trimmed Mean (70%) Wave-Trend = Wave + Trend