GDPNow: 11%

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 11.0 percent on May 7, down from 13.6 percent on May 4. After Tuesday’s GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 12.5 percent, 33.5 percent, and 5.5 percent, respectively, to 10.5 percent, 27.5 percent, and 3.9 percent, respectively.