GDPNow Forecast: 13.2%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 13.2 percent on May 3, up from 10.4 percent on April 30. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.7 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively, to 12.1 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.46 percentage points to -1.52 percentage points.

This is up from their forecast of 10.4% on April 30.

Inflation

On Friday the government reported that the “core” (excluding food and energy) personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.4% in March, a 1.8% annual rate from a 1.4% rate in February.

This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation which the Fed target is 2.0% annually.