Utilizing CAPE for a safe retirement withdrawal rate

Target-date funds have risen significantly, thanks in part to the Pension Protection Act of 2006, which enabled automatic enrollment. Target-date funds, for the most part, follow the old investment advisor adage that a person's stock weight should be around 110 minus his or her age. While this fits the common-sense notion that, all things being … Continue reading Utilizing CAPE for a safe retirement withdrawal rate

Bubbles do not deflate, they pop

In his paper, "The 13th Labour of Hercules: Capital Preservation in the Age of Financial Repression," author James Montier makes the reference: The investor has no sound basis for expecting more than an average overall return…[from] commonstocks [JM: Indeed, on our measures global equities look priced to deliver around 3% real p.a. inour current forecast]…But … Continue reading Bubbles do not deflate, they pop

Does the CAPE Ratio Work Globally?

In his book, Global Value, Meb Faber, sets out to explore the above question. With data from Global Financial Data and Morningstar, he looked at 44 countries. Over the period 1980-2012 he charted the average CAPE Ratio. He found, not surprisingly, countries with the highest valuations yielded the lowest subsequent 10 year returns He subsequently … Continue reading Does the CAPE Ratio Work Globally?

A Growth-Value Approach

Before Richard Bernstein headed up his own money management firm he was head of quantitative research for Merrill Lynch and wrote a great book on style investing: Style Investing: Unique Insight Into Equity Management. Richard basically took the opportunity to illustrate when the best times were to invest in growth and value styles by detailing … Continue reading A Growth-Value Approach

NY Fed Q2 Nowcast: 4.6%

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.6% for 2021:Q2.News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q2 by 0.3 percentage point.A negative surprise from housing starts data drove the decrease. Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)