For the third time in the last 12 months, the wave price pattern of US tech stocks turns negative. Prices are represented by VGT and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.
"My idea of the modern stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking. " - Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan - A paper to read - To read the paper . . .https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3693034
The problem with what is commonly thought of as inflation is that consumer prices move up and down for many different reasons and, at any one time, there will be prices rising somewhere and falling elsewhere. So, what prices should be checked by the compilers of the statistics? The answer, inevitably, contains much subjectivity because … Continue reading What comes next?
Powell's approach to inflation has been described as "fuzzy" compared to his predecessors. Maybe it's because of his background in law. Asked at the FOMC press conference what the Fed means by "moderate," Powell said, with perhaps a hint of frustration, "It means not large. It means not very high above 2%. It means moderate. … Continue reading Powell and inflation
Stocks wave pattern since June top appears to be in a final phase as oscillation continues to decline lower ... Volume crashes ...
The following reminders could not be more important in times like these with respect to the stock market. The outstanding characteristics of financial markets are shortness of memory and ignorance of history. - John Kenneth Galbraith It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just … Continue reading It’s times like these
The reality is that the business cycle is different than the economic cycle. GDP growth is much more consistent than EPS growth. EPS declines can occur during periods of economic growth. Across the 68 years since 1950, earnings declined during 23 of them despite positive economic growth in all of those years…34%! Real GDP growth … Continue reading Earnings are not immune to declines
The traditional advice of Wall Street has been that "since you can't time the market" investors should remain invested in stocks at all times to avoid the risk of missing the opportunity for returns. One statistic often cited is that most of the market's return occurs on a few days and, if an investor is … Continue reading In it to win it
In today's investment world which is teeming with bullish participants there's at least one group who is leery of all the feverish buying: company insiders. Insiders are selling 50% more intensely than they were at the December 2019 peak and at triple the rate at the February  top in stocks. Like the Commercials in … Continue reading Get Me Out!
The stock market has demonstrated longer-term secular bull and bear cycles. Secular cycles are periods with a common trend. In the stock market, these secular cycles are driven by trends in the P/E ratio. This chart presents the secular stock market ycles since 1900, based upon analysis of P/E ratios, inflation, and other factors. The … Continue reading Secular Cycles